Considering the way that the world economy has evolved over the last 30-40 years, there was a transition from a predominant real economy to a predominant financial economy. Once, there were prevalent economic crises (when the real economy was important); today, the economies all around the world...

Financial constraints affect firms’ financial and productive decisions generating substantial macroeconomic implications in terms of investment, economic growth, inflation and income distribution. Despite its relevance, financial constraints are not directly observable. However, empirically...

We show that macroeconomic growth at the end of the year (fourth-quarter or December) strongly predicts the returns of the aggregate market, small- and large-cap stocks, portfolios sorted on book-to-market and dividend yields, bond returns, and international stock returns, whereas economic...

An extensive literature has analyzed the implications of hidden shifts in the dividend growth rate. However, corresponding research on learning about growth persistence is completely lacking. Hidden persistence is a novel way to introduce long-run risk into standard business-cycle models of...

Existing literature continues to be unable to offer a convincing explanation for the volatility of the stochastic discount factor in real world data. Our work provides such an explanation. We do not rely on frictions, market in completeness or transactions costs of any kind. Instead, we modify a...

We examine the relationship between monetary policy operations and interbank trading of funds using sovereign bonds as collateral. We first establish that, in the pre-crisis period, there are important but rather weak relations between these funding sources and that this relationship varies...

This paper compares the Hou, Xue, and Zhang (2014) q-factor model and the Fama and French (2014a) five-factor model on both conceptual and empirical grounds. It raises four concerns with the motivation of the five-factor model: The internal rate of return often correlates negatively with the...

An economy in which investors know the true model and its parameters and filter the regime probability from aggregate consumption history has been empirically rejected. Hypothesizing that prices partly reflect investorsʼ belief about the regime, we infer beliefs from prices. The model fits well...

Yes. By using real-time structure break monitoring techniques we find evidence against monotonic response pattern, specifically three response structures of US stock market to the federal monetary policy actions based on a sample from 1989-2010. We re-estimate the market response in each of the...

This paper studies the influence of macroeconomic fundamentals and the underlying 10years Greek government bonds. We examine for the period between Q12001 up to end to Q42012, applying four major macroeconomic variables such as Debt to GDP ratio, deficit, inflation and unemployment. We found...