We study fluctuations in stock prices using a framework derived from the present value model augmented with a macroeconomic factor. The fundamental value is derived as the expected present discounted value of broad dividends that include, in addition to traditional cash dividends, other payouts...

We develop networks of international stock market indices using information and correlation based measures. We use 83 stock market indices of a diversity of countries, as well as their single day lagged values, to probe the correlation and the flow of information from one stock index to another...

This paper reviews and appraises the body of empirical research on the association between .nancial markets and economic growth that has accumulated over the past quarter-century. The bulk of the historical evidence suggests that financial development a¤ects economic growth in a positive,...

In this paper, we use new historical data on the most popular stocks traded at the çIstanbul bourse between 1910 and 1914, to examine the effect of wars on stock market prices. During this period, the Ottoman Empire was involved in the Turco-Italian and the Balkan wars, leading to massive land...

1914 ve 1918 yılları arasında, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu iktisadi anlamda yıkım yaratan Birinci Dünya Savaşı’na dahil olmuştu. Savaşın sonunda ülke işgal edilmiş ve işgal kuvvetleri ile çatışmalar ortaya çıkmıştı. Tarihsel çalışmalarda, Osmanlı İmparatorluğu’nun...

We develop and apply a procedure to test the welfare implications of a beauty and non-beauty contest based on survey forecasts of interest rates and yields in a large country sample over an extended period of time. In most countries, interest rate forecasts are unbiased and consistent with both...

This article concerns the existence of equilibrium in a two-period model with general personal and corporate tax structures. We show that an equilibrium exists if there is a price system under which no consumer or firm has an arbitrage opportunity. The model can be modified to handle non convex...

This paper explores strategic trade in short-lived derivative securities by agents that possess long-term information about an underlying asset. In contrast to trading equity, where an informed agent will ultimately benefit from his trades, trading short-lived securities is profitable only if...

In this article we argue that the evaluation and implementation of Canadian fiscal policy could be significantly improved through the systematic use of information provided by global financial markets. In particular, we show how the information contained in internationally traded asset returns...

We present an incomplete markets model to understand the costs and benefits of increasing government debt in a low interest rate environment. Higher risk increases the demand for safe assets, lowering the natural rate of interest below zero, constraining monetary policy at the zero lower bound,...