This research adapts the Black-Scholes option pricing model that is widely used in practice to a world where investors only form sufficiently rational expectations (expectations that deviate from perfection without creating arbitrage opportunities). Within the no-arbitrage interval of market...

Findings from brain sciences show that the brain must first optimize on its own internal resources before seeking to optimize on the resources available in the external world. We show that this modest change is perspective, from resource-constrained humans to resource-constrained brains,...

Using recent findings from brain sciences, we model the human brain as solving two optimization problems instead of one, which are (i) optimal resource allocation in the brain and (ii) mean-variance optimization. This changes the classical CAPM in only one way: an alpha appears which provides a...

This research develops an analytical model of the incentives created by allowing credit default swaps to be contracted with virtually no regulation. The incredible growth in the volume of those financial contracts since they were deregulated in 2000, as well as the credit bubble and subsequent...

This research finds empirical evidence that naked short sales contribute to the ability of investors to manipulatively short down the value of firms in need of external capital. The findings are also consistent with a hypothesis that the announcement effect of a new stock issue is merely a proxy...

This paper analyzes market mispricings as a function of arbitragers' confidence in their valuation estimates and subjective predictions about the future trades of other investors. New insights on the nature of investor psychology are revealed that help explain market cycles and anomalies like...

This paper models market mispricings as a function of subjective predictions about the endogenously determined future trades of other investors. Utilizing only a very general set of very unrestrictive assumptions, a single boundary condition with only a few variables is deduced that facilitates...

This research shows stock prices to be a function of long-term earnings forecasts, as is consistent with financial theory. Stock prices reflect not only the average of the IBES long-term earnings predictions but also some superior forecasting power beyond that aggregated average prediction