We carry out an indirect inference test of two versions of a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of world trade. One of these, the ‘classical’ model,is well-known as the Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuelson model of world trade, in which countries trade homogeneous products in world markets and...

Although economists have long been aware of Jensen's inequality, many econometric applications have neglected an important implication of it: estimating economic relationships in logarithms can lead to significant biases in the presence of heteroskedasticity. This paper explains why this problem...

Since the recovery from the great financial crisis in 2010, global real trade flows grew much slower than pre-crisis, in both absolute terms (growth rates) and relative terms (relative to GDP, from 2:1 in the great 1990’s to 1:1 since 2012) A debate has arisen as to whether this global trade...

This paper examines the effects of African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) on intra-African trade in the medium- and long-term, focusing on trade in services. It assesses the impacts of a 50\% reduction of non-tariff barriers in four services sectors on bilateral trade in services...

We examine the empirical evidence bearing on whether UK trade is governed by a Classical model or by a Gravity model, using annual data from 1965 to 2015 and the method of Indirect Inference which has very large power in this application. The Gravity model here differs from the Classical model...

This paper shows how gains from trade are conditioned by love of variety, defined as the extent to which an additional product variety generates benefits in either final or intermediate consumption. We develop a multi-country, multi-sector gravity trade model where love of variety is...

This paper reconsiders logics somewhat implicit in many international trade models, particularly centered around Law of One Price. International trade is identical to domestic trade with two markets combined as one only when no frictions, such as labor immobility, or some states close, exist. In...

Trade is a reciprocal relation, and must always be balanced. This paper shows that the traditional partial model of international trade is a monster model, combining the demand and the supply of two different markets into one graph. Such theory thus misleads some people to use trade deficit to...

The paper examines the welfare consequences of an inflow of foreign capital and an emigration of skilled labour in a small open economy in terms of a four sector general equilibrium model in the presence of endogenous skill formation and imperfection in the market for unskilled labour. It finds...

We use a dynamic trade model with two sectors and two types of workers to analyze the optimal setting of income-generating tariffs. This approach allows us to take account of adjustment dynamics, distributional aspects and the time horizon of policy makers and workers. In response to a...