The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means...

Numerous archival papers indicate that investors can generate profit by following disciplined trading strategies that exploit the market's incomplete adjustment for various accounting data. Even assuming efficient markets in which securities are not mispriced, evidence suggests that both...

In experimental games, a substantial minority of players often fail to best respond. Using two-person 3x3 one-shot games, we investigated whether 'structuring' the pre-decision deliberation process produces greater consistency between individuals' stated values and beliefs on the one hand and...

We experimentally investigate how price expectations are formed in a large asset market where subjects' only task is to forecast the future price of a risky asset. The realized prices depend on these expectations. We observe small (6 participants) and large markets (about 100 participants). In...

Adaptive learning and eductive learning are two widely used ways of modeling learning behavior in macroeconomics. Both approaches yield restrictions on model parameters under which agents are able to learn a rational expectation equilibrium (REE) but these restrictions do not always overlap with...

We analyse the results of a laboratory experiment on expectation formation. Participants were asked to predict prices in an artificial single-good economy, and were paid according to their forecasting accuracy. Thirteen markets, with six subjects each, were created, in two different treatments....

In experimental games, a substantial minority of players often fail to best respond. Using two-person 3x3 one-shot games, we investigate whether ‘structuring' the pre-decision deliberation process produces greater consistency between individuals' stated values and beliefs on the one hand and...

Rational Expectations (RE) models have two crucial dimensions: 1) agents correctly forecast future prices given all available information, and 2) given expectations, agents solve optimization problems and these solutions in turn determine actual price realizations. Experimental testing of such...