This paper uses small set of variables-- real GDP, the inflation rate, and the short-term interest rate -- and a rich …

This paper formalizes the process of updating the nowcast and forecast on out-put and inflation as new releases of data … Philadelphia surveys have a large marginal impact on the nowcast of both inflation variables and real variables and this effect is … sizeable. Prices and quantities affect the precision of the estimates of inflation while GDP is only affected by real variables …

We evaluate various models' relative performance in forecasting future US output growth and inflation on a monthly … essentially useless in the last two decades. When forecasting inflation, instead, fewer predictors are significant (among which …

The contribution of this paper is to derive a bivariate distribution for inflation and output uncertainty with a well …-defined role for subjective judgements. The marginal distributions for inflation and output growth are derived from uncertainty in … the macro variables that are deemed to be important for future inflation and output growth. The uncertainty in the macro …

structure of the population contains information correlated to medium-term trends in growth, inflation and other macroeconomic … available after (at least) a one-year lag. Monetary policy is believed to affect inflation with a lag of one or two years … improve on 3-5 years-ahead forecasts of potential GDP and inflation. …

distributions of output and inflation. Since the variance and the asymmetry of the forecast distributions are largely driven by the …

of U.S. inflation and marginal cost turns out superior to the best-fitting conventional causal VAR model in forecasting … inflation …

This paper builds a short-term inflation projections (STIP) model for Latvia. The model is designed to forecast highly …) benchmarks. Across inflation components, the forecast accuracy gains are 20-30% forecasting 3 months ahead and 15-55% forecasting …

This paper surveys the recent literature on inflation forecasting and conducts an extensive empirical analysis on … forecasting inflation in Singapore, Japan, South Korea and Hong Kong paying particular attention to whether the inflation …-markup theory can help to forecast inflation. We first review the relative performance of different predictors in forecasting h …