predictor of core inflation than other measures …

inflation can be improved by aggregating forecasts of subindices of the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) as opposed to … distinguishes between different forecast horizons, HICP components and inflation measures. Various model selection procedures are … component does not necessarily help forecast year-on-year inflation twelve months ahead …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … from different models. The combination methods are evaluated for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy … volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that, first, forecast combination helps hedge against bad forecast performance and …

In this paper, I apply univariate and vector autoregressive (VAR) models to forecast inflation in Vietnam. To … properties of inflation in Vietnam. Then, I compute the pseudo out-of-sample root mean square error (RMSE) as a measure of … forecasting models from among the different candidates. I find that VAR_m2 is the best monthly model to forecast inflation in …

This paper develops Area-wide Leading Inflation CyclE (ALICE) indicators for euro area headline and core inflation with … an aim to provide early signals about turning points in the respective inflation cycle. The series included in the two … turning points in the inflation cycle ex post and perform well in a simulated real-time exercise over the period from 2010 to …

The period of extraordinary volatility in euro area headline inflation starting in 2007 raised the question whether … for HICP headline inflation and HICP excluding food and energy. We investigate how forecast accuracy of the combination … including the global financial crisis with its extraordinary volatility in inflation. Overall, we find that forecast combination …

The goal of this paper is to construct leading indicators that anticipate inflation cycle turning points on a real time … monitoring basis. As a first step, turning points of the IPCA inflation are determined using a periodic stochastic Markov … is then used to extract common cyclical movements in a set of variables that display predictive content for inflation …

Recent empirical work has considered the prediction of inflation by combining the information in a large number of time … the forecasts over a large number of different models, each of which is a linear regression model that relates inflation … pseudo out-of-sample prediction of US inflation, and find that it gives more accurate forecasts than simple equal weighted …

In this paper, we present an updated version of the reference model used at Banque de France to forecast inflation …: MAPI (Model for Analysis and Projection of Inflation). While the conceptual framework of the model remains very close to …