Much research studies US inflation history with a trend-cycle model with unobserved components. A key feature of this … model is that the trend may be viewed as the Fed's evolving inflation target or long-horizon expected inflation. We provide … a new way to measure the slowly evolving trend and the cycle (or inflation gap), based on forecasts from the Survey of …

are consistent with the behavior of inflation. We label these deviations the output gap. In order to pin-down the features … of the model, we evaluate the accuracy of real-time inflation forecasts from different model specifications. The version … that forecasts inflation best implies that after the 2011 sovereign debt crisis the output gap in the euro area has been …

predict inflation, interest rates, unemployment, income, stock prices, and the housing market. The results cast doubt on the … allocation, and economic forecasting. The third paper, An Inflation Expectations Horserace, examines the use of high …-frequency versus low-frequency inflation expectations data. I present a collection of 37 different measures of inflation expectations …