estimates for inflation forecasting both in the short term (one-quarter and one-year ahead) and the medium term (two-year and …

inflation, we examine models of inflation that do and do not use the output gap. The Phillips curve, which relates inflation to … real activity, is regarded as the maintained theory of inflation. Models of inflation without the output gap include the … paper examines ten different models of inflation and estimates sixty-seven different specifications, some of which …

We apply a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model to the analysis of inflation, output growth and global imbalances …-term inflation target, and the incidence of recession and slow growth. The forecasting performance of the GVAR model in relation to …

nowcasting Philippine inflation, real GDP growth, and other related macroeconomic variables. It focuses on variations of mixed …

We provide a new way to filter US inflation into trend and cycle components, based on extracting long-run forecasts …, then estimating parameters, and then extracting the stochastic trend in inflation. The trend-cycle model with unobserved … components is consistent with numerous studies of US inflation history and is of interest partly because the trend may be viewed …

This paper presents a framework for quantifying uncertainty around point forecasts for GDP, inflation and house prices …

This paper studies uncertainty using the ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters' data. We consider both inflation and … are based on subjective probability distributions of survey respondents. Our analysis indicates that individual inflation … inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on economic activity by decreasing output growth and increasing inflation and …

In the paper we have investigated to what extent the behaviour of CPI inflation depends on changes in domestic economic … price indices respond to exchange rate movements and/or foreign inflation. The impact of exchange rate is most substantial …