This paper proposes a methodology to nowcast and forecast inflation using data with sampling frequency higher than … accurate estimates of inflation for the current and followings months. In particular, this paper uses the Weekly Oil Bulletin … exploit data available only at monthly frequency for both countries. - Factor Models ; Forecasting ; Inflation ; Mixed …

We evaluate the ability of several univariate models to predict inflation in a number of countries and at several … DESARIMA models is high in stable inflation countries, for which the RMSPE is around 100 basis points when prediction is made …

Inflation is defined as an increase in the general price level of goods and services within a period of time. For any … economic agent to formulate policy, it must taken into consideration inflation and the aim of this study is to use ARIMA model … to predict inflation in Ghana. In order to fulfill this objective, monthly inflation variable was used to build the …

examines the usefulness of these estimates for inflation forecasting. Over this period, we find that the Federal Reserve … estimation techniques. In contrast to previous work, we also find no deterioration in forecast performance when inflation …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …

We forecast quarterly US inflation based on the generalized Phillips curve using econometric methods which incorporate …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard bench marks in forecasting U.S. inflation … once frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its … predictors) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest …

In this paper we argue that future inflation in an economy depends on the way people perceive current inflation, their … inflation sentiment. We construct some simple measures of inflation sentiment which capture whether price acceleration is shared … by many components of the CPI basket. In a comparative analysis of the forecasting power of the different inflation …

Disagreement in inflation expectations observed from survey data varies systematically over time in a way that reflects … the level and variance of current inflation. This paper offers a simple explanation for these facts based on asymmetries … in the forecasters' costs of over- and under-predicting inflation. Our model implies (i) biased forecasts; (ii) positive …

This paper estimates an inflation function and forecasts one-year ahead inflation for Japan. It finds that (i) markup … (EqCM) of inflation; (ii) with intercept corrections, one-year ahead inflation forecast performance of the EqCM is good; and … obtained would serve for structural model-based inflation forecasting. It also highlights the importance of adjustment to a …