For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

The dynamics of hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets is an important element of competitive power markets that were only established in the last decade. In electricity markets, the market microstructure does not allow for continuous trading, since operators require advance notice in...

We focus on estimation and inference of the ratio of trend slopes between two time series where the trending behavior of each series can be well approximated by a simple linear time trend. Our methodological results are motivated by a recent empirical climate literature that seeks to estimate...

A unified quasi-maximum likelihood (QML) estimation theory for stationary and nonstationary simple Markov bilinear (SMBL) models is proposed. Such models may be seen as generalized random coefficient autoregressions (GRCA) in which the innovation and the random coefficient processes are fully...

The paper categorizes factors responsible for forecasting the outcome of U.S. presidential election 2016 using factor analysis, which groups the various economic and non-economic parameters based on the correlation among them. The major economic factor significant in 2016 US presidential...

Given the growing international competition and globalization being characterized by the massive reduction of institutional barriers, opening new markets for consumer goods, the birth of many trade agreements and the establishment of the World Trade Organization, it is imperative for companies...

This paper provides a new approach to recover relative entropy measures of contemporaneous dependence from limited information by constructing the most entropic copula (MEC) and its canonical form, namely the most entropic canonical copula (MECC). The MECC can effectively be obtained by...

We provide a theoretical framework to explain the empirical finding that the estimated betas are sensitive to the sampling interval even when using continuously compounded returns. We suppose that stock prices have both permanent and transitory components. The permanent component is a standard...

This paper proposes alternative methods for constructing estimators from accept-reject samples by incorporating the variables rejected by the algorithm.

This paper synthesises a global approach to both Bayesian and likelihood treatments of the estimation of the parameters of a hidden Markov model for the cases of normal and Poisson underlying distribution.