Many fields of modern science and engineering have to deal with events which are rare but have significant consequences. Extreme value theory is considered to provide the basis for the statistical modeling of such extremes. The potential of extreme value theory applied to financial problems has...

In this paper we analyse the problem of the modelling of individual transitions in presence of an incomplete sampling scheme.

In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986,1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional...

This study sheds new light on the question of whether or not sentiment surveys, and the expectations derived from them, are relevant to forecasting economic growth and stock returns, and whether they contain information that is orthogonal to macroeconomic and financial data. I examine 16...

For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the Livingston Survey, the Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the Michigan Survey. While these measures have been useful in developing models of forecasting inflation, the data are low frequency...

We consider the problem of interval estimation of the parameter of the exponential growth in the short time series, with additional parameters. The result can be used in predicting the course of cancer on the basis of the dynamics of the tumor marker.

It is well-known that traditional financial institutions like banks follow procyclical risk strategies (Rajan 2005, 2009, Shin 2009, Jacques 2010) in the sense that they increase their leverage in economic expansions and reduce it in recessions, which leads to a procyclical behaviour for their...

We study in this note the class of bilinear processes with periodic time-varying coefficients. We give necessary and sufficient conditions ensuring the existence of strict and second order stationary solutions (in periodic sense) and for the existence of higher order moments. The given...

We propose a new generalization of the concept of cointegration that allows for the possibility that a set of variables are involved in an unknown nonlinear relationship. Although these variables may be unit-root non-stationary, there exists a nonlinear combination of them that takes account of...

In this paper, we aim at forecasting the stochastic volatility of key financial market variables with the Kalman filter using stochastic models developed by Taylor (1986, 1994) and Nelson (1990). First, we compare a stochastic volatility model relying on the Kalman filter to the conditional...