We propose and model that firms face two potential defaults: Financial default on their debt obligations and operational default such as a failure to deliver on obligations to customers. Hence, firms with limitations on outside financing substitute between saving cash for financial hedging to...

Debt financing gives rise to conflicts of interest between creditors and stockholders that are better controlled with private loans than publicly traded bonds. However, public debt has greater liquidity and diversifiability. We propose an institutional innovation ? a "supertrustee" - that...

Studies of predictive regressions analyze the case where yt is predicted by xt-1 with xt being first-order autoregressive, AR(1). Under some conditions, the OLS- estimated predictive coefficient is known to be biased. We analyze a predictive model where yt is predicted by xt-1, xt-2,... xt-p...

Studies of predictive regressions analyze the case where yt is predicted by xt - 1 with xt being first-order autoregressive, AR(1). Under some conditions, the OLS-estimated predictive coefficient is known to be biased. We analyze a predictive model where yt is predicted by xt - 1,...

We propose a new hypothesis testing method for multi-predictor regressions with finite samples, where the dependent variable is regressed on lagged variables that are autoregressive. It is based on the augmented regressiom method (ARM; Amihud and Hurvich (2004)), which produces reduced-bias...