This paper models limit order books where each trader is uncertain of the underlying distribution in the asset's value to others. If this uncertainty is rapidly resolved, eeting limit orders are submitted and quickly cancelled. This enhances liquidity supply, but leaves intact established...

Using 20 years of Australian quarterly data, this paper decomposes Australian share prices into their fundamental and speculative components. To do this we derive the fundamental share-price-output ratio and, hence, the fundamental share price from a resticted vector-autoregressive model...

Using 54 yeras of US quarterly data and a VAR model underpinned by a theory of the relationship between stock prices and output, this paper considers the deviations of US stock prices from their fundamental value. To do this we derive the fundamental price-output ratio and the fundamental stock...

Bond as well as stock portfolios of German investors are compared to the respective mean-variance-efficient portfolios. It is found that independent of the investors' degree of risk aversion, German investors' portfolios deviate significantly from the mean-variance-efficient ones, especially the...

This paper examines financial professionals' overconfidence in their forecasting performance. We compare individuals' self-rating of performance with the true performance, both measured relative to the same peer group. The forecasters in our sample show overconfidence on average, although to a...

We consider a general equilibrium model in asset markets with a countable set of states and expected risk averse utilities. The agents do not have the same beliefs. We use the methods in Le Van - Truong Xuan (JME, 2001) but one of their assumption which is crucial for obtaining their result...

Two well-known, but seemingly contradictory, features of exchange rates are that they are close to a random walk while at the same time exchange rate changes are predictable by interest rate differentials. In this paper we investigate whether these two features of the data may in fact be...

A share price in a stock market can be thought of as arising out of an aggregation procedure. The price of a stock aggregates many individual beliefs into a collective one, the collective will of the market, so to speak. How does this aggregation come about? And is this aggregation fair in the...

This paper applies the model presented by J. Merrick Jr. (2001) to estimate both the default recovery rates and the implied default probabilities of the Argentinean Sovereign Bonds during the crisis which took place in December 2001. Between October 19th and December 24th 2001, the average bond...