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Measuring macroeconomic uncertainty : a cross-country analysis

Dibiasi, Andreas; Sarferaz, Samad - 2020

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012228723

Is deflation costly after all? : the perils of erroneous historical classifications

Kaufmann, Daniel - 2017 - This version: 1 September 2017

Measurement error in historical data distorts descriptive analyses based on binary classifications. Modern replications … of deficiencies in retrospective CPI estimates for the 19th century show that measurement issues cause misclassification …. Using various approaches to control for measurement error in 19th century US CPI data, a series of stylized facts emerge: (i …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011749393

A utilitarian measure of economic growth

Usher, Dan - 2016 - Latest version March 1, 2016

A utilitarian measure of economic growth combines changes in the distribution of income with changes in real income per person to show how much better off people are becoming over time. It is the rate of growth of the dollar value of average utility of income. As such , it is seen differently by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011433520

Measuring Asymmetric Stochastic Cycle Components

Koopman, Siem Jan; Lee, Kai Ming - 2005

To gain insights in the current status of the economy, macroeconomic time series are often decomposed into trend, cycle and irregular components. This can be done by nonparametric band-pass filtering methods in the frequency domain or by model-based decompositions based on autoregressive moving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014062862

Measuring the NAIRU with Reduced Uncertainty : A Multiple Indicator-Common Component Approach

Basistha, Arabinda; Startz, Richard - 2004

Standard estimates of the NAIRU or natural rate of unemployment are subject to considerable uncertainty. We show in this paper that using multiple indicators to extract an estimated NAIRU cuts in half uncertainty as measured by variance. The inclusion of an Okun's Law relation is particularly...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014069491

Product Quality, Measured Inflation and Monetary Policy

Rodnyansky, Alexander; Van der Ghote, Alejandro; Wales, … - 2022

This paper proposes a tractable New Keynesian (NK) economy with endogenous adjustment in product quality that nests the canonical framework. Endogenous quality choice reduces the slope of the traditional NK Phillips curve and amplifies the economy’s response to productivity shocks. This leads...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014080687

On the Measurement of Business Cycles and Growth Cycles

Zarnowitz, Victor; Ozyildirim, Ataman - 2002

Business cycles and growth cycles should not be mixed or confused, as is unfortunately often the case in discussions of economic growth. This paper compares various approaches to time series decomposition for the analysis of business cycles and growth cycles as related but separate phenomena. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109696

Alternative Measures of the Average Duration of Unemployment

Corak, Miles; Heisz, Andrew - 1998

This paper examines the robustness of a measure of the average complete duration of unemployment in Canada to a host of assumptions used in its derivation. In contrast to the average incomplete duration of unemployment, which is a lagging cyclical indicator, this statistic is a coincident...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014112465

Stylised Facts from Output Gap Measures

Scott, Alasdair M. - 2005

This paper compares three models of the output gap in New Zealand - the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's incumbent MV filter, estimates from a Structural VAR, and a multivariate unobserved components model - and investigates whether there are features that are consistent across the measures of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014103331

Chapter 41 Gross job flows

Davis, Steven J.; Haltiwanger, John - In: Handbook of labor economics : volume 3, part B, (pp. 2711-2805). 1999

Market economies experience high rates of job creation and job destruction in almost every time period and sector. Each year, many businesses expand and many others contract. New businesses constantly enter, while others abruptly exit or gradually disappear. Amidst the turbulence of business...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014024705