I examine the effect of exogenous terms of trade shocks on an exchange rate by turning to New Zealand's dairy auctions. Dairy is New Zealand's largest export category, making up almost 20 percent of exports. Specifically, whole milk powder accounts for 6 to 11 percent of total exports, and its...

In this paper we investigate whether cross-sectional information from local equity marketscontained information on devaluation expectations during the Asian crisis. We concentrate onthe information content of equity prices as these markets were in general the largest and mostliquid at the time...

This paper uses a microstructure approach to analyze the effectiveness of capital controls introduced in Brazil to counter an appreciation of the Real. Based on a rich data set from the Brazilian foreign exchange market, we estimate a reduced-form VAR to characterize the interaction of the...

This paper presents evidence on the accuracy of press reports regarding the foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) between January 1995 and December 1999. We find that the reports of interventions in the financial press are a relatively inaccurate indicator...

We use the event-study methodology to analyze the effectiveness of the foreign exchange market interventions conducted by the Swiss National Bank (SNB) during the period from 1986 through 1995. We find some evidence that the interventions of the SNB had an impact on exchange rate dynamics. The...

We study the relationship between foreign exchange trading activity and volatility on the USD/EUR foreign exchange market on the basis of a unique data set around the events of 09/11/2001. We find that volatility and bid-ask spreads are by far larger at that time, but the shock is not...

This paper makes three contributions to our understanding of the price discovery process in currency markets. First, it provides evidence that this process cannot be the familiar one based on adverse selection and customer spreads, since such spreads are inversely related to a trade?s likely...

The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...

This paper examines heterogeneity in exchange rate expectations. Whereas agents' heterogeneity is key in modern exchange rate models, evidence on determinants of heterogeneity is weak so far. Our sample, covering expectations from about 300 forecasters over 15 years, shows remarkable time...

This paper sheds new light on a long-standing puzzle in the international finance literature, namely, that exchange rate expectations appear inaccurate and even irrational. We find for a comprehensive dataset that individual forecasters' performance is skill-based. 'Superior' forecasters show...