This paper introduces the Bank of England's new forecasting platform and provides examples of how it can be applied to practical forecasting problems. The platform consists of four components: COMPASS, a structural central organising model; a suite of models, used to fill in the gaps in the...

This paper uses a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model to estimate the macroeconomic impact of a tax reform that replaces a corporate income tax (CIT) with a destination-based cash-flow tax (DBCFT). Two key channels are at play. The first channel is the shift from an income tax to a...

Yes, partly. This paper studies the potential role of structural reforms in improving Japan's outlook using the IMF's Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Model (GIMF) with newly-added demographic features. Implementation of a not-fully-believed path of structural reforms can significantly...

Are uncertainty shocks a major source of business cycle fluctuations? This paper studies theeffect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity(macro uncertainty) and to the dispersion of entrepreneurs' idiosyncratic productivity (microuncertainty) in a...

The EU Services Directive was adopted in 2006 to foster competition in services across Europe. However, progress in liberalizing services has fallen short of expectations due to the article 15 of the Directive, which allows countries to maintain pre-existing restrictions if judged necessary to...

This paper investigates the relationship between uncertainty and economic activity in a DSGE model with sticky prices and credit frictions. We analyse the effect of a mean preserving shock to the variance of aggregate total factor productivity (macro uncertainty) and we compare it to the effect...

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking, DSGE model developed by the Economic Modeling Division of the IMF for policy analysis and international economic research. This paper uses GIMF to illustrate when a destination-based cash-flow tax is...

The Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model (GIMF) is a multi-region, forward-looking,DSGE model developed at the International Monetary Fund for policy analysis and internationaleconomic research. This paper documents the incorporation of corporate income, cash-flow anddestination based...

Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on consensus forecasts, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010) and Blagrave and...

The most recent recession has been associated with a financial crisis that led to a large widening of spreads and quantitative restrictions on lending. As well as affecting investment, such a credit contraction is likely to have had a large effect on the working capital positions of UK firms and...