The volatility of interest rates is relevant for many financial applications. Under realistic assumptions the term structure of interest rate differentials provides an important predictor of the term structure of interest rates. This paper derives the term structure of differentials in a...

Several theoretical models suggest that the mere announcement of entering a currency union in the future triggers instantaneous changes in exchange-rate volatility. First, this paper develops a Markov-switching framework by which, in fact, volatility regime-switching in foreign exchange rates...

Based on a theoretical monetary exchange-rate model in continuous time, this article establishes a sequential estimation framework which is capable of indicating central bank intervention in the run-up to a currency union. Using daily pre-European Monetary Union (pre-EMU) exchange-rate data for...

Motivated by repeated spikes and crashes during previous decades we investigate whether the heavily financialized market for crude oil has been driven by speculative bubbles. In our theoretical modeling we draw on the convenience yield approach in order to approximate the fundamental value of...

Using a Markov-switching GARCH model this paper analyzes the volatility evolution of the greenback's price in gold from after the Civil War until the return to gold convertibility in 1879. The econometric inference associated with our methodology indicates a switch to a regime of low volatility...

In this paper we use a state-space model with Markov-switching to detect speculative bubbles in stock-price data. To this end we express a present-value stock-price model in state-space form which we estimate using the Kalman filter. This procedure enables us to estimate a two-regime...

Die vorliegende Arbeit analysiert die Wechselkursdynamik eines glaubwürdig angekündigten, zeitlich fest anvisierten Übergangs von flexiblen zu festen Wechselkursen auf der Grundlage eines monetären Wechselkursmodells mit flexiblen Preisen. Verschiedene währungspolitische Ereignisse werden...