We propose a tree-structured heterogeneous autoregressive (tree-HAR) process as a simple and parsimonious model for the estimation and prediction of tick-by-tick realized correlations. The model can account for different time and other relevant predictors' dependent regime shifts in the...

This paper presents two classes of tick-by-tick covariance estimators adapted to the case of rounding in the price time stamps to a frequency lower than the typical arrival rate of tick prices. We investigate, through Monte Carlo simulations, the behavior of such estimators under realistic...

The effects of temporal aggregation on asymmetry properties and the kurtosis of returns based on the NYSE composite index are studied. There is less asymmetry in responses to shocks for weekly and monthly frequencies than for the daily frequency. Kurtosis is not smaller for the lower frequencies

Probabilities of default built for regulatory purposes cannot be applied directly to expected credit losses impairment calculations under the IFRS 9 new standard. This is because the regulatory framework requires stressed through-the-cycle (TTC) probabilities, so as to avoid a procyclical...

In banking practice, rating transition matrices have become the standard approach of deriving multi-year probabilities of default (PDs) from one-year PDs, the latter normally being available from Basel ratings. Rating transition matrices have gained in importance with the newly adopted IFRS 9...

We investigate price duration variance estimators that have long been neglected in the literature. We show i) how price duration estimators can be used for the estimation and forecasting of the integrated variance of an underlying semi-martingale price process and ii) how they are affected by a)...

This paper proposes a simple technical approach for the analytical derivation of Point-in-Time PD (probability of default) forecasts, with minimal data requirements. The inputs required are the current and future Through-the-Cycle PDs of the obligors, their last known default rates, and a...

We propose serial correlation-robust asymptotic confidence bands for the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and its functional, viz. the area under ROC curve (AUC), estimated by quasi-maximum likelihood in the binormal model. Our simulation experiments confirm that this new method...

The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform...

We first propose a reduced-form model in discrete time for Samp;P500 volatility showing that the forecasting performance of a volatility model can be significantly improved by introducing a persistent leverage effect with a long-range dependence similar to that of volatility itself. We also find...