A study of the effect of disinflation policies on monetary velocity, which shows a systematic relation between unexpected changes in the money-income relationship and changes in the trends of inflation rates, and which concludes that the failure to commit to a stable price policy tends to...

A demonstration of time series techniques used to forecast quarterly money supply levels. The results indicate that a bivariate model, including an interest rate and M1 predicts M1 better than the univariate model using M1 only, and as well as a 5-variable model which adds prices, output, and...

An empirical and theoretical analysis of how changes in the monetary policy function affect the covariance structure of macroeconomic data.

This paper examines the impact of a persistent shock to the growth rate of total factor productivity in a New Keynesian model in which the central bank does not observe the shock. The authors then investigate the performance of alternative policy rules in such an incomplete information...

We should expect a third business cycle in succession in which the real federal funds rate reaches its trough well after the economy begins to recover.

Although banks' cost of funds has dropped dramatically with the federal funds rate target, households' cost of funds has remained high, especially if we look at their cost of borrowing relative to their rate of return on saving.