Similar Search Results

Forecasting private consumption : survey-based indicators vs. Google trends

Schmidt, Torsten; Vosen, Simeon - 2009

In this study we introduce a new indicator for private consumption based on search query time series provided by Google Trends. The indicator is based on factors extracted from consumption-related search categories of the Google Trends application Insights for Search. The forecasting performance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003903709

Consumer Sentiment and Consumer Spending : Decomposing the Granger Causal Relationship in the Time Domain

Gelper, Sarah - 2009

It is often believed that the consumer sentiment index has predictive power for future consumption levels. While Granger causality tests have already been used to test for this, no attempt has been made yet to quantify the predictive power of the consumer sentiment index over different time...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012766512

When Should We Care About Consumer Sentiment? Evidence from Linear and Markov-Switching Models

Ivanova, Detelina; Lahiri, Kajal - 2003

Using monthly data over 1978:01-1996:12 we examine the usefulness of the Index of Consumer Sentiment (ICS) in predicting aggregate consumption expenditure and its components. Bivariate causality tests in a linear model show the indicator value of ICS in predicting durables consumption. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014105259

Confidence Indexes and the Probability of Recession : A Markov Switching Model

Batchelor, Roy - 2002

This paper uses a time-varying parameter Markov switching model to measure linkages between business confidence, consumer confidence, and the state of the economy in the US and the UK. Falling business confidence significantly increases the probability that growth will subsequently fall. Rising...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014109691

Do demographics prevent consumer aggregates from reflecting micro-level preferences?

Koulovatianos, Christos; Schröder, Carsten; Schmidt, Ulrich - 2014

, aggregation can be rejected if appropriate data violate an affine equation regarding how much individuals benefit from within-household …-wide preference parameters, which are useful for policy evaluation. The underlying demand-aggregation properties that this approach … requires, should be easy to empirically disprove: since household-consumption choices differ for households with more members …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010419864

The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption : Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections

Gillitzer, Christian - 2015

This paper seeks to identify the effect of consumer sentiment on consumption. Using Australian consumer sentiment data, which is unique in asking individuals about their political preferences, we show that consumers report substantially higher levels of sentiment when their self-identified...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013014765

The Impact of Newspapers on Consumer Confidence : Does Spin Bias Exist?

Brakman, Steven; Alsem, Karel-Jan; Hoogduin, Lex; … - 2021

It is sometimes argued that news reports in the media suffer from biased reporting. Mullainathan and Shleifer (2002) argue that there are two types of media bias. One bias, called ideology, reflects a news outlet's desire to affect reader opinions in a particular direction. The second bias,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013318879

Consumer sentiment during the Covid-19 pandemic : the role of others' beliefs

Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem - 2021

This paper investigates the direct and indirect effects of others' beliefs on respondents' own beliefs and consumer sentiment. Conducting consumer surveys with randomized control trials (RCTs) in Thailand and Vietnam during the COVID-19 pandemic, we implement two information treatments. Both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012500548

Consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic : the role of others' beliefs

Bui, Dzung; Dräger, Lena; Hayo, Bernd; Giang Hong Nghiem - 2020

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012543061

The international dimension of confidence shocks

Dées, Stéphane; Güntner, Jochen - 2014

Building on Beaudry, Nam and Wang (2011) - hereafter BNW -, we use survey data on consumer sentiment in order to identify the causal effects of confidence shocks on real economic activity in a selection of advanced economies. Starting from a set of closed-economy VAR models, we show that these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010354540