Little is known about the adequacy of changes in reserves as a proxy for intervention despite its use in computing exchange market pressure index. This paper demonstrates the co-movement between monthly reserves changes and intervention is governed by intervention amount, the frequency of the...

Currency and financial turmoils in international capital markets have been the focus of an extensive theoretical research which started around 30 years ago. This paper provides a synthetic overview of this theoretical modeling. We analyze the basic analytical framework corresponding to the...

The three exchange rate regimes adopted by Italy from 1883 up to the eve of World War I - the gold standard (1883-1893), floating rates (1894-1902), and “gold shadowing” (1903-1911) - produced a puzzling result: formal adherence to the gold standard ended in failure while shadowing the gold...

Open-economy macroeconomists regularly invoke the policy trilemma that states that governments cannot simultaneously maintain an open capital account, a fixed exchange rate, and a domestically-oriented monetary policy. My thesis is that jurisdictions with substantial offshore activities find...

We present a model of a quot;softquot; exchange rate target zone and interpret it as a stylized description of the post-August 1993 ERM. Our central bank targets a moving average of the current and past exchange rates, rather than the exchange rate's current level, thus allowing the rate to move...

Many countries manipulate the value of their currency or use some form of capital control, yet the data usually used to detect these manipulations are low frequency, expensive, lagged, and potentially mis-measured. I demonstrate that the price data of the internationally traded cryptocurrency...

In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a...

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorris and Shin (American...