In this paper we investigate the effects of central bank interventions (CBI) in a noise trading model with chartists and fundamentalists. We first estimate a model in which chartists extrapolate past returns and fundamentalists forecast a mean reverting dynamics of the exchange rate towards a...

Stylized empirical facts about the correlation between the volume of international trade and exchange rate variability/uncertainty are at odds with the predictions of the simple open economy model. The present paper argues that this puzzle may be explained by drawing on the recent theoretical...

While virtually all currency crisismodels recognise that the fate of a currency peg depends on how tenaciously policy makers defend it, they seldom model how this is done. We incorporate themechanics of speculation and the interest rate defence against it in the model ofMorris and Shin (American...

If there is exchange market pressure (EMP), monetary authorities can use the interest rate and official interventions to offset this depreciation tendency, or they can let the exchange rate change. We introduce a new approach to derive how these three variables should be combined to measure EMP....

We incorporate terms-of-trade externality into a small open economy featuring an incomplete market, sterilized intervention, and capital controls as in Chang et al. (2015), and we highlight the central banks reaction to exchange rate movement. Our calibrated model using data from China shows...

We investigate the effects of Central Bank interventions which are designed to smooth exchange rate volatility but are not aimed at a particular trend level. We present a model in which the intervention flow is a non-linear mapping of the market order flow. Simulations show that small daily...

I show that the prices of the internationally traded crypto-currency bitcoin can be used to estimate a currency's unofficial exchange rate and capital controls at a daily interval. Two important bitcoin features are documented: (1) Bitcoin-based exchange rates approximate the behavior, but not...

Although there seems to be a broad consensus among economists that purely floating or completely fixed exchange rates (the so-called corner solutions) are the only viable alternatives of exchange rate management, many countries do not behave according to this paradigm and adopt a strategy within...