A large sample approximation of the posterior distribution of partially identified structural parameters is derived for models that can be indexed by a finite-dimensional reduced form parameter vector. It is used to analyze the differences between frequentist confidence sets and Bayesian...

We provide a conceptual framework to analysis counterfactual scenarios using macroeconometric models. We consider UK entry to the euro. We derive conditional probability distributions for the difference between the future realisations of variables of interest subject to UK entry restrictions...

Globalization, climatic changes and demography are the main forces modeling the development of societies, in general, and of each nation, in particular. Both offer opportunities but also imply challenges. The paper aims to identify and synthetically present some factors of influence which...

For the modern history of the SR, the state budget data from the period of CSFR are not relevant according to the existence of two republic budgets with strong mutual relations and two-way flows. In 1996, a new budget composition based on foreign experiences was introduced. The first two parts...

We propose a simulated maximum likelihood estimator for dynamic models based on non-parametric kernel methods. Our method is designed for models without latent dynamics from which one can simulate observations but cannot obtain a closed-form representation of the likelihood function. Using the...

Plants' entry and exit behaviour in Swedish municipalities are studied within a fixed-effect, integer-valued autoregressive model. Based on eight industrial sectors, 1985--1993, and all municipalities, models are estimated by a generalized method of moment estimator. Influences on entry and exit...

Econometrics is the area of statistics concerned in analyzing economic data, for both economic and business applications. This document, introduces the intermediate concepts of this area, for students already familiarized with basic econometric theory. In particular, topics concerning...

This paper assesses empirically whether or not current account reversals have permanent growth effects and the role of macroeconomic policies in this process. The methodology developed in de Mello, Padoan and Rousova (2010) to identify a chronology of current account reversals is applied to the...

Globalisation and demography are the main forces modelling the development of societies at large and of each nation in particular.The paper aims to identify and synthetically present some factors of influence which triggered by the end of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st century a...

This paper discusses an approach to estimate euro area GDP quarterly growth over two quarters ahead. The estimates are derived from separate single equations for each quarter to be forecast using OLS including a moving error term. The explanatory variables describe real economic activity or its...