This paper compares Value Line and I/B/E/S analyst earnings forecasts in terms of accuracy, rationality, and as proxies for market expectations. Using more recent data and forming consensus forecasts from the I/B/E/S detail files, we reach different conclusions than Philbrick and Ricks [1991],...

This paper examines how market prices, volume, and traders' dividend expectations respond to public information releases in laboratory markets for a long-lived financial asset. The objective is to study deviations from the symmetric information risk-neutral rational expectations (RE) benchmark,...

This paper revisits two valuation models based on accounting figures: the Residual Income Valuation (RIV) and Abnormal Earnings Growth (AEG). Our research design has two approaches: i) we demonstrate theoretical integration of both models; and ii) we show in a practical manner that models...

Presentation Slides for "Overconfidence, Arbitrage, and Equilibrium Asset Pricing" This paper offers a model in which asset prices reflect both covariance risk and misperceptions of firmsapos prospects, and in which arbitrageurs trade against mispricing. In equilibrium, expected returns are...

The basic paradigm of asset pricing is in vibrant flux. The purely rational approach is being subsumed by a broader approach based upon the psychology of investors. In this approach, security expected returns are determined by both risk and misvaluation. This survey sketches a framework for...

We provide archival evidence on how a particular type of supplementary information affects the credibility of management earnings forecasts. Managers often provide detailed forecasts of specific income statement line items to shed light on how they plan to achieve their bottom-line earnings...

This study proposes and validates “other information” in analysts' forecasts as a legitimate proxy for future cash flows, and examines its incremental role in explaining stock return volatility. We suggest that “other information” contains information about fundamentals beyond that...

Accounting measurement and disclosure rules have a significant impact on the real decisions that firms make. In this essay, we provide an analytical framework to illustrate how such real effects arise. Using this framework, we examine three specific measurement issues that remain controversial:...

Using NYSE TAQ data, we compute MLEs of the primitive parameters of a Kyle-type model, including the variance of fundamentals given only public information, the variance of errors in private signals, and the variance of uninformed liquidity trading (noise). An out of sample test shows that the...

We build a simple model of analysts' propensity to herd. Using ideas from GMM and simulated method of moments, we estimate an analyst's herding propensity with I/B/E/S forecast data from 1989-2004. We find that, of the analysts whose herding propensity is defined by our model, 85% of them tend...