This study evaluates a set of parametric and non-parametric value-at-risk (VaR) models that quantify the uncertainty in VaR estimates in form of a VaR distribution. We propose a new VaR approach based on Bayesian statistics in a GARCH volatility modeling environment. This Bayesian approach is...

We specify a class of non-linear and non-Gaussian models for which we estimate and forecast the conditional distributions with daily frequency. We use these forecasts to calculate VaR measures for three different equity markets (US, GB and Japan).(...)

We used neural-network based modelling to generalize the linear econometric return models and compare their out-of-sample predictive ability in terms of different performance measures under three density specifications.(...)

This paper presents a comprehensive review and comparison of five computational methods for Bayesian model selection, based on MCMC simulations from posterior model parameter distributions. We apply these methods to a well-known and important class of models in financial time series analysis,...