The paper compares one-period ahead forecasting performance of linear vector-autoregressive (VAR) models and single-equation Markov-switching (MS) models for two cases: when leading information is available and when it is not. The results show that single-equation MS models tend to perform...

The paper analyzes the circumstances in which the combination of forecasts yields better results than the use of the forecasts separately. We propose a method of combining forecasts based on their efficiency on long and medium-term using as benchmarks the combination of forecasts based on...

We address some issues that arise with the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model. We prove that the DCC large system estimator (DCC estimator) can be inconsistent, and that the traditional interpretation of the DCC correlation parameters can lead to misleading conclusions. We then suggest...

Macroeconomic practitioners frequently work with multivariate time series models such as VARs, factor augmented VARs as well as time-varying parameter versions of these models (including variants with multivariate stochastic volatility). These models have a large number of parameters and, thus,...

This paper studies large dimensional factor models with threshold-type regime shifts in the loadings. We estimate the threshold by concentrated least squares, and factors and loadings by principal components. The estimator for the threshold is super consistent, with convergence rate that depends...

The September 2008 collapse of Lehman Brothers was the 9/11 on Wall Street, and many articles had been written on the changes in the global risk landscape that followed. However, there is scarcity of rigorous studies using empirical data and advanced econometric methods to verify such a change...

The paper documents the specification and estimation of an econometric model of the Brazilian stock market (Bovespa) using a GARCH(1,1) model. We used quarterly data for an estimation period spanning from January 1995 to December 2003. The empirical results show that GDP growth, exchange-rate...

The presence of tail dependencies invalidates the multivariate normality assumptions in portfolio risk management. The identification of tail (in)dependencies has drawn major attention in empirical financial studies. Yet it is still a challenging issue both theoretically and practically....

I present evidence that higher frequency measures of inflation expectations outperform lower frequency measures of inflation expectations in tests of accuracy, predictive power, and rationality. For decades, the academic literature has focused on three survey measures of expected inflation: the...