We estimate a model with latent factors that summarize the yield curve (namely, level, slope, and curvature) as well as observable macroeconomic variables (real activity, inflation, and the stance of monetary policy). Our goal is to provide a characterization of the dynamic interactions between...

A rapidly growing literature has documented important improvements in volatility measurement and forecasting performance through the use of realized volatilities constructed from high-frequency returns coupled with relatively simple reduced-form time series modeling procedures. Building on...

Asian policymakers are giving consideration to allowing their currencies to be used by non-residents. If policy allows this and a robust fixed income market provides support, the Australian experience indicates that a currency can internationalise fairly quickly, particularly if it offers a...

The issue of monetary policy and asset prices has been receiving much attention not only because it is an interesting topic for macroeconomists but also because central banks have faced daunting challenges from large swings in various types of asset prices. To some extent, the achievement of a...

Three of the most important recent facts in global macroeconomics - the sustained rise in the US current account deficit, the stubborn decline in long run real rates, and the rise in the share of US assets in global portfolio - appear as anomalies from the perspective of conventional wisdom and...

A pure exchange economy with a financial market is studied where aggregate dividends are modeled as a diffusion. The dynamics of the diffusion are allowed to depend on factors which are unobservable to the agents and have to be estimated. With perfect information, the asset market would be...

This paper introduces a new method for evaluating a trading system based on its past performance. The method is a hypothesis test that asks whether the system is making random trades. The test controls for price behavior during the test period and the trade characteristics of the system being...

An exact integral representation is derived for the American option price. It is not easily solvable, but it leads to an efficient approximation scheme. The results obtained are very satisfactory and comparable to those available from other methods. In this method, critical stock prices can be...

The popular press attaches particular significance to certain numerical values of the Dow-Jones index. These magic numbers are referred to as `resistance levels' or `psychological barriers.' We examine 38 years of closing values of this index to see if it is of any help in predicting future...

This paper extends the field of index number theory to the case of risk, by deriving the Divisia index from the Euler equations under risk, rather than from the first order conditions under perfect certainty, as was done by Francois Divisia. The result is an extended Divisia index which corrects...