The aim of this paper is to explain why cross-sectional estimated migration correlations displayed in the academic and professional literature can be either not consistent, or inefficient, and to discuss alternative approaches. The analysis relies on a model with stochastic migration in which...

In this paper we explain how to use rating histories provided by the internal scoring systems of banks and by rating agencies in order to predict the future risk of a set of borrowers. The method is developed following the steps suggested by the Basle Committee. To introduce both migration...

We consider a set of Markovian processes with Stochastic transition matrices. This specification extends the standard stochastic intensity model introduced by Cox in the two state case. Such a model is appropriate for the joint analysis of rating histories of several corporates, including the...

The aim of this paper is to explain why cross-sectional estimated migration correlations displayed in the academic and professional literature can be either not consistent, or inefficient, and to discuss alternative approaches. The analysis relies on a model with stochastic migration in which...

In this paper we shed more light on the portfolio behaviour of the older part of the UK population over the period 1988-94. We employ data from the Retirement Survey and different econometric specifications in order to model the risky asset ownership decisions over time. The unique nature of the...

Information on the expected changes in credit quality of obligors is contained in credit migration matrices which trace out the movements of firms across ratings categories in a given period of time and in a given group of bond issuers. The rating matrices provided by Moody’s, Standard...

While interest in social determinants of individual behavior has led to a rich theoretical literature and many efforts to measure these influences, a mature social econometrics has yet to emerge. This chapter provides a critical overview of the identification of social interactions. We consider...

We propose four different GMM estimators that allow almost consistent estimation of the structural parameters of panel probit models with fixed effects for the case of small T and large N. The moments used are derived for each period from a first order approximation of the mean of the dependent...

In this paper some labour market consequences of transitions in the agriculture sector are examined by combining a 20-year unbalanced panel data set from Norwegian farm couples (households) and logit modeling of one-period transition probabilities. The multi-dimensionality of the problem follows...

This paper provides a systematic analysis of identification in linear social interactions models. This is both a theoretical and an econometric exercise as the analysis is linked to a rigorously delineated model of interdependent decisions. We develop an incomplete information game that...