Is it possible to profitably trade trends in foreign currencies? We examine the major currency futures contracts which have been trading since the 1970s as well as more recent contracts on exotic currencies that have only begun to trade in the past few years. The main conclusion is that the era...

We analyze the intertemporal stability of returns to technical trading rules in the foreign exchange market by conducting true, out-of-sample tests on previously published rules. The excess returns of the 1970s and 1980s were genuine and not just the result of data mining. But these profit...

An important puzzle in international finance is the failure of the forward exchange rate to be a rational forecast of the future spot rate. It has often been suggested that this puzzle may be resolved by using better statistical procedures that correct for both non-stationarity and nonnormality...

Traditional portfolio balance theory derives a downward sloping currency demand function from limited international asset substitutability. Historically, this theory enjoyed little empirical support. We provide direct evidence by examining the exchange rate effect of a major redefinition of the...

This study proposes a more robust estimation of the implied volatility in the FX market, offers a possible explanation to the observed quot;smilequot; in implied volatilities based on a quot;clientele effectquot;, and tests the predictability of future volatilities in the FX market. We employ...

Using intra-day data, this paper investigates the contribution to the price discovery of Euro and Japanese Yen exchange rates in three foreign exchange markets based on electronic trading systems: the CME GLOBEX regular futures, E-mini futures, and the EBS interdealer spot market. Contrary to...

The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of the Bank of Japan's official interventions on the JPY/USD parity during the period 1992-2003. The novelty of our approach is to combine two recent advances of the empirical literature on foreign exchange interventions: (i) drawing on...

Evidence from psychology shows that people tend to be overconfident in two dimensions: they underestimate uncertainty and overestimate their own abilities. This paper provides evidence that foreign exchange dealers are likewise overconfident in both dimensions.We study overconfidence because...

This paper examines the forward premium puzzle based on 1-week forward rates across weekdays. The paper finds that Thursday consistently appears to be a special day on which the puzzle disappears, while it is present on other weekdays. In addition to Thursday, Monday is also found to be a...

This paper examines the valuation effects of corporate name changes involved oil related terms during recent oil price surges. Using data from the U.S. and Canadian stock markets, we show that there is a tendency for companies in both markets to add oil or petroleum to their corporate names when...