In order to analyze the pricing of portfolio credit risk – as revealed by tranche spreads of a popular credit default swap (CDS) index – we extract risk-neutral probabilities of default (PDs) and physical asset return correlations from single-name CDS spreads. The time profile and overall...

We study the risk of holding credit default swaps (CDS) in the trading book. In particular, we compare the Value at Risk (VaR) of a CDS position to the VaR for investing in the respective firm's equity. Our sample consists of CDS – stock price pairs for 86 actively traded firms over the period...

We consider the problem of ex-ante forecasting conditional correlation patterns using ultra high frequency data. Flexible semiparametric predictors referring to the class of dynamic panel and dynamic factor models are adopted for daily forecasts. The parsimonious set up of our approach allows to...

With reference to the class of asset pricing models with a market maker and mean-variance optimization of speculative agents, the note seeks to clarify the concepts behind the price adjustment rule, which are often treated somewhat carelessly in this literature. Calling attention to the...

This note is concerned with two recent agent-based models of speculative dynamics from the literature, one by Gaunersdorfer and Hommes and the other by He and Li. At short as well as long lags, both of them display an autocorrelation structure in absolute and squared returns that comes...

This paper investigates a sample of 27 OECD countries to test whether national elections induce higher stock market volatility. It is found that the countryspecific component of index return variance can easily double during the week around an Election Day, which shows that investors are...

The study at hand deals with the expectations of professional analysts and novices in the context of foreign exchange markets. We analyze the respective forecasting accuracy and our results indicate that there exist substantial differences between professional forecasts and judgmental forecasts...

This paper reports the results of 16 experimental asset markets that explore the effects of trade transparency on the price formation process and its results using a more realistic design than related studies. The open orderbook does not improve informational efficiency and does not result in...

This paper reports the results of 18 experimental asset markets with 262 subjects that explore the effects of liquidity and aggregation of information. The main focus lies on the comparison of different trading mechanisms of stock exchanges. Compared to most of financial markets experiments,...

26 Aktien des Deutschen Aktienindex DAX mit 71% Marktkapitalisierung und 84% Anteil am Gesamtumsatz werden über 249 Handelstage des Jahres 1997 auf den Kurseinfluss der Transaktionsgröße hin analysiert. Der verwendete Satz hochfrequenter Transaktionsdaten erlaubt in dieser Form erstmals für...