We extend probit modeling to forecast a bear stock market in the United States and eight major foreign stock markets. In general, we find that the U.S. yield spread contains more important market-timing information than does the home-country yield spread for profitable market timing. At a 35%...

Using synchronous transactions data for IBM from the New York, Pacific and Midwest Stock Exchanges, we estimate an error correction model to investigate whether each of the exchanges is contributing to price discovery. Johansen's multi-variate cointegration test yields two cointegrating vectors...

Research Summary: This study estimates national and state prisoner elasticities for violent crime, property crime, murder, rape, robbery, assault, burglary, larceny, and auto theft, benchmarking the results against previous studies. The state elasticities vary widely across states, implying that...

The recently advanced space-time-autoregressive (ST-AR) model is used to forecast U.S., regional and state violent and property crime rates. The disaggregate state (Florida) violent crime model includes murder, rape, robbery, and assault and the property crime model, burglary, larceny, and motor...

This study extends the work of Estrella and Mishkin (1996, 1998) to show that interest-rate spreads and probit modeling can be used to predict recessions in many states as well as the nation. State recessions are defined as two or more consecutive quarters of declining real gross state product....

Previous research has failed to explain the rise and fall of US crime since 1970. This study uses cointegration, error correction and common long-memory components analyses to demonstrate that four basic crime factors explaining both the increases in US violent and property crime between 1970...