This paper studies the ability of stationary and cointegrated versions of long-run risk models to explain out-of-sample asset returns during 1931-2009. The models perform similarly overall to the classical Capital Asset Pricing Model in a mean squared error sense, but have smaller average...

To measure the investment performance of a portfolio manager who may engage in market timing, it is necessary to consider both market level and volatility timing behavior as well as security selection ability. We develop and implement measures that accommodate all three components. A well...

The literature has not established that a positive alpha, as traditionally measured, means that an investor would want to buy a fund. When alpha is defined using the client's utility function, a positive alpha generally means the client would want to buy. When markets are incomplete investors...

This article provides a review of the rapidly developing literature on investment performance evaluation. The goals are to summarize the significant forces and contributions that have brought this field of research to its current state of knowledge and to suggest directions for future research....

Previous studies have identified predetermined variables that have some power to explain the time series of stock and bond returns. This paper shows that loadings on the same variables also provide significant cross-sectional explanatory power for stock portfolio returns. These loadings are...

We explore the different factors that drive expected returns in world markets. Our research offers two innovations. First, the introduction of the Euro currency unit greatly reduces the complexity of including foreign exchange risk in asset pricing models. We use a synthetic Euro excess return...

This paper evaluates the ability of bond funds to "market time" nine common factors related to bond markets. Timing ability generates nonlinearity in fund returns as a function of common factors, but there are several non-timing-related sources of nonlinearity. Controlling for the...

We develop asset pricing models' implications for portfolio efficiency with conditioning information in the form of lagged instruments. A model identifies a portfolio that should be minimum-variance efficient with respect to the conditioning information. Our framework refines tests of portfolio...