The rational expectations hypothesis for survey and model-based inflation forecasts − from the Survey of Professional Forecasters and the Greenbook respectively − is examined by properly taking into account the persistence characteristics of the data. The finding of near-unit-root effects in...

For Latvia with incoming into the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened. Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration processes on development of economy of Latvia. In paper various indicators of a national economy before and after...

It is our duty to insist, by repetition, on some aspects linked with possible exit from the present crisis, observing that the general approach has had the temptation to derail from the well known and very simple rules imposed either by theory or practice in connection with the business cycle...

The paper presents briefly the evolution of inflation over the period August 2008 - November 2010 for the new member states (NMS) of the EU, which are on the waiting list to adopt the Euro (in a random order, they are Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Poland and...

We investigate whether the anchoring properties of longrun inflation expectations in the United States, the euro area, and the United Kingdom have changed around the economic crisis that erupted in mid-2007. We document that surveybased measures of long-run inflation expectations remained fairly...

The current implementation of the Fan Chart displays equal tail probability bands and do not take into account that the variable of interest may be subject to data revision. In this note I propose the use of Highest Probability Density, HPD, bands and include flexibility to display the risks...

The ongoing euro zone debt crisis creates an undesirable scenario for the global economy as well as for the Asia-Pacific region given that the region has close economic linkages. The paper aims to provide quantitative estimates of the potential impact of the euro zone debt crisis on merchandise...

High food prices have put increasing inflationary pressures across the Asia-Pacific region and threatened food security. Bad weather in important food-producing countries and speculation in commodity markets have affected global food supplies and added volatility to booming commodity markets...

The similarities yet differences across South Asian countries, and their differential response to recent food and oil price shocks, gives a useful opportunity to better understand the structure of inflation in these economies. Analysis of the internal and external balance and evidence on demand...

Skill erosion during unemployment was of particular concern as unemployment duration increased in the Great Recession. I argue that it generates an externality in job creation: firms ignore how their hiring decisions affect the unemployment pool’s skill composition, and hence the output...