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Macroeconomic uncertainty and the impact of oil shocks
Van Robays, Ine - 2012
demand and supply shocks. The results show that higher macroeconomic uncertainty, as measured by higher world industrial …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009621702
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Speculation in the Oil Market
Juvenal, Luciana - 2012
The run-up in oil prices since 2004 coincided with growing investment in commodity markets and increased price comovement among different commodities. We assess whether speculation in the oil market played a role in driving this salient empirical pattern. We identify oil shocks from a large...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013107787
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Transitory and Permanent Shocks in the Global Market for Crude Oil
Rebei, Nooman - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012836533
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The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models
Kilian, Lutz - 2020
Oil market VAR models have become the standard tool for understanding the evolution of the real price of oil and its impact in the macro economy. As this literature has expanded at a rapid pace, it has become increasingly difficult for mainstream economists to understand the differences between...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012839764
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Identifying oil supply news shocks and their effects on the global oil market
Thomas, Arthur; Moussa, Zakaria - 2021
supply shock has only a limited effect on oil price. Finally, a news shock regarding oil supply shortfalls has macroeconomic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013215283
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Refining the workhorse oil market model
Zhou, Xiaoqing - 2019
The Kilian and Murphy (2014) structural vector autoregressive model has become the workhorse model for the analysis of oil markets. I explore various refinements and extensions of this model, including the effects of (1) correcting an error in the measure of global real economic activity, (2)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012230336
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Much ado about nothing? : the shale oil revolution and the global supply curve
Foroni, Claudia; Stracca, Livio - 2019
We focus on the implications of the shale oil boom for the global supply of oil. We begin with a stylized model with two producers, one facing low production costs and one higher production costs but potentially lower adjustment costs, competing á la Stackelberg. We find that the supply...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012059007
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The impact of China's economic growth on crude oil price : evidence from structural VAR
Hamendi, Ahmed; Hook, Law Siong - In: Review of Economic Analysis : REA 15 (2023) 3/4, pp. 237-252
This paper examines the impact of Chinese economic growth on the real price of crude oil based on monthly time series data from 1992:01 to 2017:06 using structural vector auto-regression (SVAR). The variables of the SVAR model are global crude oil production, index of global economic activity,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014481185
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Oil price shocks and macroeconomic dynamics in an oil-exporting emerging economy : a New Keynesian DSGE approach
Oladunni, Sunday - In: CBN journal of applied statistics 11 (2020) 1, pp. 1-34
a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model to study how an oil price shock impact macroeconomic … aggregates in an oil-rich emerging economy. We consider a positive oil price shock to uncover the extent to which oil price … oil price shock, reveal evidence of Dutch disease and the operation of the Harrod-Balassa-Samuelson effect. We find a …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012297450
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Forty years of oil price fluctuations : why the price of oil may still surprise us
Baumeister, Christiane; Kilian, Lutz - 2016
It has been forty years since the oil crisis of 1973/74. This crisis has been one of the defining economic events of the 1970s and has shaped how many economists think about oil price shocks. In recent years, a large literature on the economic determinants of oil price fluctuations has emerged....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011431626