In this paper, we use the largest exchange rate survey in Colombia to test for the rational expectations hypothesis, the presence of a time-varying risk premium and the accuracy of exchange rate forecasts. Our findings indicate that episodes of exchange rate appreciation preceded expectations of...

Equilibrium real exchange rate and corresponding misalignment estimates differ tremendously depending on the panel estimation method used to derive them. Essentially, these methods differ in their treatment of the time-series (time) and the cross-section (space) variation in the panel. The study...

Empirical studies outline developing countries' experience economic growth through an undervalued exchange rate and that exchange rate overvaluations have negative long term effects on economic growth. This paper examined the impact of exchange rate movements as well as exchange rate...

This paper investigates the predictive properties of import and export prices of commodities on the exchange rates. A period from 1993 to 2016 is considered. We _nd that forecasts of the exchange rate adding commodity export and import prices are superior to those neglecting these variables....

We look at a panel of Latin American countries from 1970 and 2016 to enquire how exchange rate pass-through has changed over time, and whether this owes to monetary or real shocks hitting the economy. We estimate conventional pass-through measures, both short and long run; then we obtain rolling...

Central banks invest their foreign exchange reserves predominantly in government securities. By means of a panel data analysis we examine the relationship between reserve currency status and public budget balance during different constellations of the international monetary system: the sterling...

We compute the exchange rate misalignment for a set of emerging economies between 1980 and 2013 using the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate definition. The real equilibrium exchange rate is constructed using a parsimonious model and estimators that are robust to cross-sectional independence...

Tepid trade growth since the 2008/2009 global financial crisis (GFC) has been partly attributed to sluggish demand from developed countries. However, data reveals that developing countries play a bigger role in holding back trade growth, while developed countries show quite robust import growth....

This paper investigates the performance of early warning systems in real-time, using forecasts of indicators that were available at the moment predictions are to be made. The study analyzes currency crises in eight Latin American and Central and Eastern European countries, distinguishing an...

This paper takes a panel cointegration approach to the estimation of short- and long-run exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to import prices in the European countries. Although economic theory suggests a long-run relationship between import prices and exchange rate, in recent empirical studies...