In this paper, we examine how business cycles affect labor market outcomes in the United States. We conduct a detailed analysis of how cycles affect outcomes differentially across persons of differing age, education, race, and gender, and we compare the cyclical sensitivity during the Great...

We test the null hypothesis that two parameters (μ1,μ2) have the same sign, assuming that (asymptotically) normal estimators (ˆμ1, ˆμ2) are available. Examples of this problem include the analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects, causal interpretation of reduced-form estimands,...

Many papers use fixed effects (FE) to identify causal impacts of an intervention. In this paper we show that when the treatment status only varies within some groups, this design can induce non-random selection of groups into the identifying sample, which we term selection into identification...

This paper evaluates the health impact of a central piece in the U.S. safety net for families with children: the Earned Income Tax Credit. Using tax-reform induced variation in the federal EITC, we examine the impact of the credit on infant health outcomes. We find that increased EITC income...