The question that this paper raise in this paper is how to choose the best mix of countries to diversify internationally? They compare several methods of asset allocation from a Swiss perspective over the period 1988-2001.

Starting from the Merton framework for firm defaults, we provide theanalytics and robustness of the relationship between defaultprobabilities and default correlations. We show that loans with higherdefault probabilities will not only have higher variances but also highercorrelations with other...

Despite scarcity being central to economics, the scarcity of brain’s internal resources has largely been ignored. Neuroscience research increasingly points to the brain evolving as a prediction engine in response to this internal-resource scarcity. The brain meets every situation with...

Despite scarcity being central to economics, the scarcity of brain’s internal resources has largely been ignored. Neuroscience research increasingly points to the brain evolving as a prediction engine in response to this internal-resource scarcity. The brain meets every situation with...

We consider economic obstacles that limit the reliability and accuracy of value-at-risk (VaR). Investors who manage large market transactions should take into account the impact of the randomness of large trade volumes on predictions of price probability and VaR assessments. We introduce...

We consider the randomness of market trade as the origin of price and return stochasticity. We look at time series of trade values and volumes as random variables during the averaging interval Δ and describe the dependences of market-based volatilities of price and return on the volatilities...

This work aims to initiate a reflection on the awareness of environmental, social, and corporate governance issues, summarized in the acronym ESG (Environmental, Social, Governance), among Italian SMEs. The integration of ESG issues into business models has led to an expansion of the risk...

I use Financial Economics theory to derive a measure of model risk with clear and actionable implications. The resulting “Model Risk Price” is based on the covariance between the payoffs associated with the model and the Stochastic Discount Factor, setting it fundamentally apart from the...

We combine machine learning algorithms (ML) with textual analysis techniques to forecast bank stock returns. Our textual features are derived from press releases of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). We show that ML models produce more accurate out-of-sample predictions than OLS...

A residual-income model, named Systemic Value Added (SVA), is proposed for decision-making purposes, based on a systemic approach introduced in Magni (2000, 2003, 2004). The model translates the notion of residual income (excess profit) giving formal expression to a counterfactual alternative...