A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to model the VIX (the Cboe Volatility Index). A 4- state Gaussian mixture is fitted to the VIX price history from 1990 to 2022. Using a growing window of training data, the price of the S&P500 is predicted and two trading algorithms are presented, based on the...

In this very first paper of a series of forthcoming research papers of ours, which we propose to bring out in near future regarding the detailed statistical and mathematical analysis of the financial resources and the budget of the Bangalore Municipal Corporation (more appropriately now called...

The objects of study of the humanities and social sciences are intrinsically complex. Because it is philosophically attractive, and because it helps in practice to manage such complexity, one of the most influential central ideas throughout the history and present of these disciplines is the...

This study reassesses the resource–economic growth nexus by incorporating several channels. Advanced panel time series techniques are used to analyze panel time series data from 1980 to 2015 in 31 oil-rich countries. Results show that oil rent augments economic growth; thus, oil rent is...

Democratization of the mysterious art of data science via Amazon Web Services, Google Cloud Platform, Microsoft Azure, and other machine learning (ML) service providers might make it too easy to apply ML. To underline this we present a worked-out example in R (including sources in the appendix),...

This paper provides a Market Model which implies a dynamic for standardized CDS index tranche spreads, i.e. tranches which securitise CDS index series and dispose of predefined subordination. The central idea consists in defining the forward Fair Tranche Spread as a function of the numeraire...

In recent publications standard methods of random matrix theory have been applied to principal components analysis of high-dimensional financial data. We discuss the fundamental results and potential shortcomings of random matrix theory in the light of the stylized facts of empirical finance. It...

The Regression Tree (RT) sorts the samples using a specific feature and finds the split point that produces the maximum variance reduction from a node to its children. Our key observation is that the best factor to use (in terms of MSE drop) is always the target itself, as this most clearly...

Goal: ISO 31000 Risk Management (RM) recently re-defined risk as the effect of uncertainty on an organization's ability to meet the objectives. Earlier, it defined risk as a combination of the probability and scope of the (predicted) consequences. The revised ISO Risk advances beyond a static...

Network-Centric Meaning-Driven Human-Centric AI-Cyber Computing Beyond Data-Driven to Event-Driven Architectures for Quantum Uncertainty, 1995-2023:Building upon the contextual focus of current global worldwide discussions on GPT, ChatGPT, GenAI, Generative AI, Large Language Model - LLMs, we...