This paper examines the drivers of the post-pandemic surge in inflation in four small open economies: Czechia, Hungary, Poland, and Slovakia. For this purpose, a Bayesian structural vector autoregressive model with sign-zero restrictions and block exogeneity is employed. The results show that...

The European Commission's growth forecasts play a crucial role in shaping policies and provide a benchmark for many (national) forecasters. The annual forecasts are built on quarterly estimates, which do not receive much attention and are hardly known. Therefore, this paper provides a...

We compute a GVAR to estimate the fiscal spillovers on output, consumption, investment, employment, and income, from 2002Q1 to 2021Q4, with 16 Euro Area (EA) countries. We found that a budget balance expansionary shock in Germany would generate positive spillovers on output and employment....

This paper analyses the persistence and mean reversion properties of sovereign debt and its components by applying fractional integration methods to long runs of annual data starting in 1831 for the UK and the US, in 1862 for Italy and in 1881 for France and Germany, and ending in all cases in...

This paper aims to construct a high-frequency coincident indicator of economic activity for Lombardy and for the provinces of Milan and Pavia, by using the dynamic factor model approach introduced by Stock e Watson (1998a e 1998b). The principal component analysis is first used to summarize the...

This paper aims to construct a high-frequency coincident indicator of economic activity for Lombardy and for the provinces of Milan and Pavia, by using the dynamic factor model approach introduced by Stock e Watson (1998a e 1998b). The principal component technique is first used to summarize the...

In the present paper we examine the German cinema market using time series data of 49 years. Applying estimation techniques such as OLS, 2SLS and SUR, we identify interrelations between the number of screens, the average real prices and the demand for movies per inhabitant. Furthermore, we test...

A large part of the current debate on US stock price behavior concentrates on the question of whether stock prices are driven by fundamentals or by non-fundamental factors. In this paper we put forward the hypothesis that a present value model with time-varying expected returns provides an...