This paper investigates the implications of a 2-regime model of the business cycle forterm premiums and volatilities in the bond market. The model, which is estimated viamaximum likelihood using GDP, consumption and production data, has two key features-mean growth rates that vary across regimes...

This paper provides an analytical solution to the problem of how an institution might optimally manage the market risk of a given exposure, under the assumption that the institution wishes to minimize its Value at Risk (VaR) using options. The solution specifies the VaR-minimizing level of...

Due to a timing mismatch between fee receipts and commission payments, there is a newand growing market for securities backed by fees from back-end load and level load mutualfunds. This paper develops a contingent claims methodology for the valuation of thesesecurities. The resulting security...

Combining insights from the contingent claims and the asset-backed securities literatures, we study the economics of value creation in the asset management business. In particular, we provide a theoretical model and a closed form formula for the value of fund fees in the presence of the well...

This paper demonstrates that an an institutional feature inherent in amultitude of mutual funds managing billions in assets generates fund NAVs that reect stale prices. Since, in many cases, investors can trade at these NAVs with little or no transactions costs, there is an obvious...

The prevailing view in finance is that the evidence for long-horizon stock return predictability is significantly stronger than that for short horizons. We show that for persistent regressors, a characteristic of most of the predictive variables used in the literature, the estimators are almost...

The forward premium anomaly is one of the most robust puzzles in financial economics. We recast the underlying parity relation in terms of cross-country differences between forward interest rates rather than spot interest rates with dramatic results. These forward interest rate differentials...

The behavioral finance literature cites the frozen concentrated orange juice (FCOJ) futures market as a prominent example of the failure of prices to reflect fundamentals. This paper reexamines the relation between FCOJ futures returns and fundamentals, focusing primarily on temperature. We show...

This paper investigates the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts in order to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we...

This paper investigates the relation between returns on stock indices and their corresponding futures contracts in order to evaluate potential explanations for the pervasive yet anomalous evidence of positive, short-horizon portfolio autocorrelations. Using a simple theoretical framework, we...