We investigate state-dependent effects of fiscal multipliers and allow for endogenous sample splitting to determine whether the US economy is in a slack state. When the endogenized slack state is estimated as the period of the unemployment rate higher than about 12 percent, the estimated...

In 2012, 22 EU countries signed the Fiscal Compact, an intergovernmental agreement aimed at backing EU fiscal rules with national arrangements. The main objective of the Compact was to strengthen compliance. Based on a survey of national independent fiscal institutions, we take a closer look at...

Long shunned as slow and ill timed, the response to the Covid-19 pandemic initiated a reassessment of fiscal policy as stabilisation tool. At the same time, there is ample evidence that major economic downturns produce lasting effects on real GDP in spite of active fiscal policy interventions....

The aim of the article is to investigate the fiscal determinants of stock-flow adjustment (SFA). Previous literature suggests that SFA may be used strategically to reduce budget deficit and public debt. As such, SFA impairs fiscal transparency and may endanger fiscal sustainability. Therefore,...

Im Koalitionsvertrag der Bundesregierung ist festgehalten, dass die Details der Schuldenbremse und vor allem die Regeln zur Bestimmung des Produktionspotenzials überprüft werden sollen. Insbesondere die Methodik zur Berechnung der konjunkturellen Defi zite wird diskutiert, da diese...

The debate on the cyclical adjustment procedure of the debt brake has focused on problems with regards to potential output. The second key determinant of the cyclical budget component, however, has been neglected: the semi-elasticity of the budget balance, which measures the response of federal...

Using an "event analysis", this paper complements the cross-country approach to the study of fiscal correlates of growth. Data on fiscal expenditures and growth for a database of 140 countries (118 developing countries) over 1972-2005 are reorganized around turning points providing a summary but...

Im Jahr 2020 publizierte das Bundesfinanzministerium den 5. Tragfähigkeitsbericht zur Staatsverschuldung in Deutschland für den Zeitraum bis 2060. Ausgangspunkt ist die zutreffende Erkenntnis, dass die von der Alterung der Gesellschaft abhängigen Kostensteigerungen auf lange Sicht über der...

EU fiscal rules are meant to keep public finances on a sustainable path. This paper presents a new database that tracks numerical compliance with the four main rules of the Stability and Growth Pact starting in 1998. Our assessment of numerical compliance abstracts from the many exceptions and...

The paper discusses the proposals of the EU Commission for the reform of the EU fiscal rules. Against the background of the devel-opment of the rules and the experience with the compliance, it becomes clear that the proposals represent a change of course. The decentral-iszed responsibility in...