In 1952 Harry Markowitz put forth a solution to the portfolio selection process. He summarizes the stages and objectives with the following, “The process of selecting a portfolio may be divided into two stages. The first stage starts with observation and experience and ends with beliefs about...

In this study we use machine learning algorithm to test Amareos sentiment indicator's predictive power of market reversals. We then build and test a viable trading strategy.As input for the algorithm, we used eight market sentiment indicators (Anger, Anticipation, Disgust, Fear, Gloom, Joy,...

A plethora of tools are used for investment decisions and performance measurement, including Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Profitability Index (PI), Modified Internal Rate of Return (MIRR), Average Accounting Rate of Return (AARR). All these and other known metrics are...

In this note we present several thought experiments involving coin-flipping to illustrate the common tendency to over-weight past data in forecasting the future, particularly in the context of investment returns. We start by describing a survey we conducted of about 700 respondents involving the...

Aumann and Serrano (2008) introduce the index of riskiness to quantify the risk of a gamble. We discuss for which gambles this index of riskiness exists by considering the acceptance behavior of CARA-agents. Since for several relevant distributions riskiness is not defined, we suggest an...

A sound policy for spending wealth over time is as important as a sensible investment policy. It's a complex problem for taxable individuals with finite, uncertain longevity. A good start is thinking about the simpler problem of how one would spend if immortal. This is exactly the real problem...

This paper takes a look back at the original Credit-Informed Tactical Asset Allocation paper published in June 2011 and extends the model to address some of the weaknesses identified in the original paper

Risk decomposition is a standard tool for analyzing investment portfolio risk. The portfolio is divided into notional parts—e.g., individual securities, holdings by sector or region, factor exposures—whose contributions to net risk are estimated and reported. Convention regards the...