The US Treasury effectively ”owns” about 24% of the stocks held by high income US taxable investors. Through the capital gains tax, Uncle Sam has an effective exposure of more than $1 trillion of equities. And this huge-but-silent investor might be about to get a lot bigger if capital gains...

Financial markets have experienced several negative sigma events in recent years; these eventsoccur with much more regularity than current risk models can predict. There is no guarantee thatthe training set's data generating process will be the same in the test set in finance. Mathematicalmodels...

Using Ergodicity Economics this paper shows that terminal wealth maximizing portfolios have betas that are substantially higher than the market portfolio (beta = 1). Simulations indicate that uncertainty about the future distribution of returns and the high cost of over-betting could be limiting...

Resilient Asset Allocation (RAA) is a more aggressive version of our Lethargic Asset Allocation (LAA) strategy. It combines a more robust “All Weather” portfolio with even slower growth-trend (GT) filter and a faster market crash-protection. GT timing goes risk-off only when both the US...

We perform an empirical analysis of trading strategies based on the systematic selling of delta hedged options, aiming at capturing the so-called volatility risk premium. We compare the performance across different strikes and maturities, and perform a breakdown of the drivers of performance. We...

This paper presents a tractable model of non-linear dynamics of market returns using a Langevin approach.Due to non-linearity of an interaction potential, the model admits regimes of both small and large return fluctuations. Langevin dynamics are mapped onto an equivalent quantum mechanical (QM)...

It is often said by proponents of the Efficient Market Hypothesis that no strategy can consistently outperform a simple buy and hold investment in broad stock averages over time. However, using a strategy based on the principles of intermarket analysis, we find that this assertion is not...

We explore in this paper the use of deep signature models to predict equity financial time series returns. First, we use signature transformations to model the underlying shape of the input equity returns; further assuming the underlying shape remains the same, we predict future values based on...

The first generation of indexing started with plain vanilla market-cap weighted indices. Based on the 1st generation of indexing, "smarter" approaches to equity beta were created, which are nowadays marketed as "Smart Beta" indices (2nd generation). Nevertheless these still exhibit severe...

In this paper we first extend the theory of almost stochastic dominance (ASD) (for risk averters) to include the ASD for risk-seeking investors. We then study the relationship between ASD for risk seekers and ASD for risk averters. Recently, Tsetlin, et al. (2015) develop the theory of...