With 30% of the world's investment grade sovereign bonds trading at sub-zero yields, there is a growing acceptance that negative interest rates are the 'new normal.' Even very low probabilities of sustained negative interest rates in the future leads to incredibly high Expected Values for...

Campbell and Shiller average 10 years of real S&P 500 earnings to construct its Cyclically Adjusted P/E ratio, or CAPE, which they then use to forecast its future 10-year returns. In essence, Campbell and Shiller kill two birds with one large stone - they use the 10-year average to reduce noise...

In this paper, we develop some properties to state the relationships between the central moments and stochastic dominance for both the general utility functions and the polynomial utility functions. This leads to draw preferences of both risk averters and risk seekers on their choices of assets...

This note describes the background of Factor investing in its Smart Beta form, and discusses the reasons Factor investing has become a popular investing style. We also discuss a number of reasons for skepticism regarding forward-looking expected returns

What would you do if you were invited to play a game where you were given $25 and allowed to place bets for 30 minutes on a coin that you were told was biased to come up heads 60% of the time? This is exactly what we did, gathering 61 young, quantitatively trained men and women to play this...

In this paper, we develop some theories related to relationships between central moments, stochastic dominance (SD) and expected utility. The first part of our discussion focus on the relationship between central moments, different order integrals and stochastic dominance as well as relationship...

The paper is focused on an ex-post investment performance analysis. Firstly, we create a suite of return, risk, return to risk and benchmark related measures with immediate real life applications in mind. We define and describe these measures and provide real data examples where appropriate....

Home Bias refers to the tendency to invest more heavily in one's domestic equity market than global market-value proportions would suggest. Whether or not home-biased investing makes sense, the fact is that people in pretty much every country do it. This article addresses the question of whether...

It’s easy to overlook the fact that, in thinking about investment risk, we are implicitly making a choice about the benchmark against which risk is measured. It’s a convention, which we often take for granted, to use our local hard currency as the risk-less benchmark – but this choice,...