Using Ergodicity Economics this paper shows that terminal wealth maximizing portfolios have betas that are substantially higher than the market portfolio (beta = 1). Simulations indicate that uncertainty about the future distribution of returns and the high cost of over-betting could be limiting...

Resilient Asset Allocation (RAA) is a more aggressive version of our Lethargic Asset Allocation (LAA) strategy. It combines a more robust “All Weather” portfolio with even slower growth-trend (GT) filter and a faster market crash-protection. GT timing goes risk-off only when both the US...

I provide a measure of time-varying tail risk in credit markets based on a dynamic power-law model. Credit tail risk is estimated from extreme price fluctuations of credit default swaps (CDS) on government debt. Tail returns are described by a power-law for core and peripheral countries within...

Consider any investor who fears ruin facing any set of investments that satisfy no-arbitrage. Before investing, he can purchase information about the state of nature in the form of an information structure. Given his prior, information structure is more informative than information structure if...

We investigate the effect of including variance derivatives as calibration and hedging instruments for pricing and hedging exotic structures. This is studied empirically using market data for SPX and VIX derivatives applied in a stochastic volatility jump diffusion model

Hedge Fund returns are often highly serially correlated mainly due to illiquidity exposures given that investments in such securities tend to be inactively traded and associated market prices are not always readily available. Following that, observed returns of such alternative investments tend...

Accessing and managing credit risk has been a major area of interest and concern for both academics, practitioners and regulators, particularly in the afterwards of the recent 2008 financial crisis. Moreover, the effective management of credit risk is a challenge faced by any banking and...

Long term investments in bonds offer known returns, but with risks corresponding to defaults of the underwriters. The excess return for a risky bond is measured by the spread between the expected yield and the risk-free rate. Similarly, the risk can be expressed in the form of a default yield,...

This paper outlines a tactical asset allocation (TAA) strategy that takes signals from the credit markets and applies them to the stock market. A power model is built using the Russell 2000 equity index and the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch High Yield B index. This model is then used in a...