This paper develops an early warning system for predicting distress for large European banks. Using a novel definition of distress derived from banks' headroom above regulatory requirements, we investigate the performance of three machine learning techniques against the traditional logistic...

In the present document it is exposed in an abstract way the models of credit portfolioes CreditMetricsTM, KMV, CreditRisk+, Credit Portfolio View in such a way that they could be calibrated and implemented in financial institutions where the quality and quantity of credit information is scanty,...

We investigate here the sensitivity of the stock returns of German financial institutions to changes in the shape of the term structure of interest rates. The standard approach has been to measure the interest rate sensitivity of stock returns by focussing solely on changes in a single interest...

The validation of probability calibration is an inherently difficult task. We develop a testing procedure for credit-scoring models. The models comprise two components to check whether the ex-ante probabilities support the ex-post frequencies. The first component tests the level of the...

The establishment of the European Banking Union constitutes a major change in the regulatory framework of the banking system. Main parts are implemented via directives that show staggered transposition timing across EU member states. Based on the newly compiled Banking Union Directives Database,...

Verbessert die Zusammenführung von Bilanz- und Ausfalldaten spezialisierter Banken die Qualität interner Kreditratingsysteme? Mit der Inkraftsetzung der Basel-II-Regeln werden Banken die Möglichkeit haben, Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeiten für die Berechnung des regulatorischen Kapitals selbst zu...

Under a new Basel capital accord, bank regulators might use quantitative measures when evaluating the eligibility of internal credit rating systems for the internal ratings based approach. Based on data from Deutsche Bundesbank and using a simulation approach, we find that it is possible to...

We use a vector error correction model to study the long-term relationship between aggregate expected default frequency and the macroeconomic development, i.e. CPI, industry production and short-term interest rate. The model is used to forecast the median expected default frequency of the...

This paper studies the relation between macroeconomic fluctuations and corporate defaults while conditioning on industry affiliation and an extensive set of firm-specific factors. Using a logit approach on a panel data set for all incorporated Swedish businesses over 1990-2002, we find strong...

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht für den Zeitraum Februar 1973 bis Dezember 2003 den Einfluss sechs makroökonomischer Variablen auf die Risikoprämien von Bankaktien in Deutschland. Besondere Bedeutung kommt der getrennten Analyse von Universal- und Hypothekenbanken zu. Die...