A credit rating system in which the number of observed defaults aligns well with the number of defaults expected by the system demonstrates good calibration. I derive new goodness-of-fit statistics to test the calibration hypothesis over several observation periods and I therefore solve the...

In this article, the Universal Approximation Theorem of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) is applied to the SABR stochastic volatility model in order to construct highly efficient representations. Initially, the SABR approximation of Hagan et al. [2002] is considered, then a more accurate...

This paper uses deep learning to value derivatives. The approach is broadly applicable, and we use a call option on a basket of stocks as an example. We show that the deep learning model is accurate and very fast, capable of producing valuations a million times faster than traditional models. We...

Before the invention of money (coin or paper) there was barter trading, a form of exchange without the use of a monetary medium such as coinage, paper money, or electronic cash (i.e. Bitcoin); Adam Smith (1776) described barter trade as primitive in his seminal “The Wealth of Nations” book....

The dollar's dominance as the world's reserve currency was inaugurated at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference where the agreement was signed by the 44 wartime allies, but the dollar's hegemony was solidified in 1971 when US President Nixon cut the dollar's link to gold. True, the fixed exchange...

We replicate three bank failure models (Martin (1977), Cole and White (2012), and DeYoung and Torna (2013)) and introduce a new predictive model along with several evaluation methods to compare their out-of-sample predictive accuracy. We find that the models are highly accurate individually, and...

In this paper we study the impact of model uncertainty, which occurs when linking a stress scenario to default probabilities, on reduced-form credit risk stress testing. This type of uncertainty is omnipresent in most macroeconomic stress testing applications due to short time series for banks'...

We investigate here the sensitivity of the stock returns of German financial institutions to changes in the shape of the term structure of interest rates. The standard approach has been to measure the interest rate sensitivity of stock returns by focussing solely on changes in a single interest...

Bitcoin blockchain possesses immense potential for future opportunities, well beyond its current use in financial services underpinning cryptocurrencies, i.e. replacing traditional trusted third parties with trusted machines. Despite over a decade has passed since Nakamoto Satoshi launched...

Stress testing models have been developed at various levels of data aggregation with or without risk attributes, but there is limited research on the joint impact of these modeling choices. In this paper, we investigate how data aggregation and risk attributes affect the development and...