The analysis of government deficits and public debt points to a fundamental error in contemporary economic discussions. It is not possible to assess the stance of fiscal policy from estimates of the public sector deficit. John Maynard Keynes's macroeconomics and the empirical evidence discussed...

This paper estimates the causal effect of fiscal rules on political budget cycles in a sample of 67 developing countries over the period 1985-2007. We exploit the geographical pattern in the adoption of fiscal rules to isolate an exogenous source of variation in the adoption of national fiscal...

Nebraska is in a sound fiscal position compared to other states, but this situation is not likely to last. States are being asked to do more by both the local and federal levels of government, and the resulting budgetary squeeze needs to be addressed. States set budgets over short horizons, but...

This paper describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in GDP growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and middle-income countries. Most...