This paper offers micro-foundations for the dynamic relationship between technology and population in the pre-industrial world, accounting for both technological progress and the hitherto neglected but common phenomenon of technological regress. A growing population engenders the endogenous...

In this paper we develop a model of invention and knowledge-diffusion. We show, in a setting of imperfect knowledge-transfers from one generation to the next, that there is a tension between the tendency for old knowledge to be lost on the one hand, and the tendency for preserved knowledge to be...

While standard demand factors perform well in predicting historical trade patterns, they fail conspicuously in 2020, when pandemic-specific factors played a key role above and beyond demand. Prediction errors from a multilateral import demand model in 2020 vary systematically with the health...

Evidence abounds on the propagation of financial stresses originating in the US mortgage market to banking systems worldwide through international funding markets. But the transmission of this external funding shock to the real economy via bank lending is surprisingly under-examined, given the...

Evidence abounds on the propagation of financial stresses originating in the US mortgage market to banking systems worldwide through international funding markets. But the transmission of this external funding shock to the real economy via bank lending is surprisingly underexamined, given the...

Large cohorts of young adults are poised to add to the working-age population of developing economies. Despite much interest in the consequent growth dividend, the size and circumstances of the potential gains remain under-explored. This study makes progress by focusing on India, which will be...

The regulation of bank capital as a means of smoothing the credit cycle is a central element of forthcoming macro-prudential regimes internationally. For such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply of credit it must be the case that: (i) changes in capital requirements...

The regulation of bank capital to improve the resilience of the financial system and, related to this aim, as a means of smoothing the credit cycle are central elements of forthcoming macroprudential regimes internationally. For such regulation to be effective in controlling the aggregate supply...

We use data on UK banks' minimum capital requirements to study the impact of changes to bank-specific capital requirements on cross-border bank loan supply from 1999 Q1 to 2006 Q4. By examining a sample in which each recipient country has multiple relationships with UK-resident banks, we are...

What kinds of credit substitution, if any, occur when changes to banks' minimum capital requirements induce banks to change their supply of credit? The question is central to the new ‘macroprudential' policy regimes that have been constructed in the wake of the global financial crisis, under...